Pair #10012

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1238380

YES ask: 0.0540
NO ask: 0.9470
Last: 0.0540

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Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23780

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:26Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it necessarily means winning a major in 2026. The reverse isn't true since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -82.57% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0075 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -86.80% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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