Pair #10011

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23780

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 77438

YES ask: 0.0320
NO ask: 0.9770
Last: 0.0320

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:26Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major elsewhere doesn't require leading Round 1 of The Open, and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 0.69% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9920 + ~$0.0049 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -3.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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