Pair #1001

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSPA

Valspar Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4898

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4303647

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:48Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. These are independent tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0030
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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