Pair #10004

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-BHAR

Will Brian Harman win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 607793

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

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Rules

If Brian Harman wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BHAR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5683

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Harman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the Open Championship is one of the four majors, so it necessitates winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -37.20% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0040 + ~$0.0011 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -41.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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