Pair #10003

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BHAR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5683

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BHAR

The Open Championship: Will Brian Harman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6219

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessary logical link; winning a major could occur at a different tournament, and a top-20 finish doesn't guarantee a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -35.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0116 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -39.71% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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