Pair #10001

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 779263

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0040

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JBRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2637

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jacob Bridgeman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:07Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the Open Championship necessitates winning a major, since it's one of the four majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080 + ~$0.0008 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -69.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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