Pair #1000

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 4303647

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0030

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Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:48Z

Reasoning: The Masters is one of the four major tournaments. If Spaun wins the Masters, he necessarily wins a major in 2026. The reverse does not hold — he could win a different major without winning the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0690
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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