Antecedent (if this happens)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN
Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6149
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN
Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?
Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3687
YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:10Z
Reasoning: If Denver has the best regular season record in the NFL, they would necessarily qualify for the playoffs. However, making the playoffs does not imply having the best record — teams can qualify with lesser records.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-44.95%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.5100
Days to maturity:
252
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
-49.23%
BELOW HURDLE