Pair #100

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN

Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?

Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6149

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN

Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3687

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:10Z

Reasoning: If Denver has the best regular season record in the NFL, they would necessarily qualify for the playoffs. However, making the playoffs does not imply having the best record — teams can qualify with lesser records.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -44.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100
Days to maturity: 252
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -49.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:44:10Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue